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Unprecedented recent warming rate and temperature variability over the east Tibetan Plateau inferred from Alpine treeline dendrochronology

 

Chunming Shi^1,5, Valérie Masson-Delmotte², Valérie Daux^2,6, Zongshan Li³, Matthieu Carré⁴, John C Moore^1,5*

 

1 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

2 Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ 8212, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Gif-sur-Yvette, France)

3 State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China

4 UM2-CNRS-IRD, Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier, Université Montpellier 2, CC065, Pl. Eugène Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier, France

5 Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, FI-96101 Rovaniemi, Finland

6 Université de Versailles Saint Quentin, Versailles, France

 

Abstract

Despite instrumental records showing recent large temperature rises on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), only a few tree-ring temperature reconstructions capture this warming trend. Here, we sampled 260 trees from 7 Alpine treelines locations across the southeast TP. Standardized tree-ring width chronologies of Abies squamata and Sabina squamat were produced following Regional Curve Standardization detrending. The leading principal component of these records is well correlated with the regional summer (JJA) minimum temperature (MinT) (R²=0.47 P<0.001, 1953 to 2009). Hence we produce a regional summer MinT reconstruction spanning the last 212 years. This reconstruction reveals a long-term persistent warming trend,  starting in the 1820s, at a rate of 0.45±0.09 °C/century (1820-2009). Comparable warming trend since 1820s was also observed in Asian summer MinT reconstruction by the PAGES 2K project, with a very close warming rate (0.43±0.08 °C/century, 1820-1989). As a result of both this gradual warming trend and an increasing multi-decadal variability, the 1990s-2000s decades are the warmest in the whole record.  The strongest decadal cooling is during the 1950s and the largest warming trend during the 1970s. The magnitude of warming from 1973 to 2003 was larger than the total warming trend from 1820s to 2009, and we note frequent extreme climate events since 1950. The pattern of this large multi-decadal variability has similarities with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), suggesting common causality. CMIP5 historical simulations do not capture the magnitude or timing of this multi-decadal variability. The ensemble CMIP5 average produces a steady warming trend after the 1970s, which only accounts for about 60% of the observed warming trend. Thus TP summer temperature could reflect a climate response to increased greenhouse gas concentrations, and may be modulated by multi-decadal variation in common with the Atlantic sector.

 

PUBLISHED BY : CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2015, 45 (5): 1367-1380

SOURCE: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-014-2386-z