当前位置： 首页»科研成果» 2015 田怀玉、黄山倩、徐冰与合作者在 PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES 上发表论文 全球院

 

Huai-Yu Tian,^#1 Peng-Bo Yu,^#2 Angela D. Luis,^#3,4,5 Peng Bi,⁶ Bernard Cazelles,^7,8 Marko Laine,⁹ Shan-Qian Huang,¹ Chao-Feng Ma,¹⁰ Sen Zhou,¹¹ Jing Wei,² Shen Li,² Xiao-Ling Lu,¹² Jian-Hui Qu,¹² Jian-Hua Dong,² Shi-Lu Tong,¹³ Jing-Jun Wang,^2,* Bryan Grenfell,^4,5 and Bing Xu^1,11,*

 

1State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

2Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China

3Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, United States of America

4Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America

5Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America

6Discipline of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia

7UMMISCO, UMI 209 IRD—UPMC, 93142 Bondy, France

8Eco-Evolutionary Mathematic, IBENS UMR 8197, ENS, Paris, France

9Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland

10Xi’an Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China

11Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

12Hu County Centre for Disease Control and Prevention of Shaanxi Province, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China

13School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

 

ABSTRACT

Background

 

Increased risks for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) caused by Hantaan virus have been observed since 2005, in Xi’an, China. Despite increased vigilance and preparedness, HFRS outbreaks in 2010, 2011, and 2012 were larger than ever, with a total of 3,938 confirmed HFRS cases and 88 deaths in 2010 and 2011.

 

Methods and Findings

 

Data on HFRS cases and weather were collected monthly from 2005 to 2012, along with active rodent monitoring. Wavelet analyses were performed to assess the temporal relationship between HFRS incidence, rodent density and climatic factors over the study period. Results showed that HFRS cases correlated to rodent density, rainfall, and temperature with 2, 3 and 4-month lags, respectively. Using a Bayesian time-series Poisson adjusted model, we fitted the HFRS outbreaks among humans for risk assessment in Xi’an. The best models included seasonality, autocorrelation, rodent density 2 months previously, and rainfall 2 to 3 months previously. Our models well reflected the epidemic characteristics by one step ahead prediction, out-of-sample.

 

Conclusions

 

In addition to a strong seasonal pattern, HFRS incidence was correlated with rodent density and rainfall, indicating that they potentially drive the HFRS outbreaks. Future work should aim to determine the mechanism underlying the seasonal pattern and autocorrelation. However, this model can be useful in risk management to provide early warning of potential outbreaks of this disease.

 

PUBLISHED BY: PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES，2015，9 (3):10.1371

 

SOURCE:  http://journals.plos.org.sci-hub.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0003530