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The relative impacts of El Niño Modoki, canonical El Niño, and QBO on tropical ozone changes since the 1980s

 

Fei Xie^1,2, Jianping Li^1,2, Wenshou Tian³, Jiankai Zhang³ and Cheng Sun^1,2

 

1 College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, People’s Republic of China

2 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of China

3 Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, People’s Republic of China

 

ABSTRACT

Some studies showed that since the 1980s Modoki activity—a different sea surface temperature anomaly pattern from canonical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropics—has been increasing in frequency. In the light of an analysis of the observations and simulations, we found that Modoki, as a new driver of global climate change, can modulate the tropical upwelling that significantly affects mid-lower stratospheric ozone. As a result, it has an important impact on the variations of tropical total column ozone (TCO), alongside quasi-biennial oscillation or canonical ENSO. Our results suggest that, in the context of future global warming, Modoki activity may continue to be a primary driver of tropical TCO changes. Besides, it is possible can serve as a predictor of tropical TCO variations since Modoki events precede tropical ozone changes.

 

KEY WORDS: tropical total column ozone (TCO), Modoki, canonical ENSO, QBO

 

PUBLISHED BY: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2014, 9, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/064020.

 

SOURCE: http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/6/064020/media