|
|
|||||||
|
当前位置：
首页»科研成果» 2014
赵励耘等在JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY发表论文
全球院
Numerical simulations of Gurenhekou glacier on the Tibetan Plateau Zhao, Liyun[1]; Tian, Lide[2,3]; Zwinger, Thomas[1,4]; Ding, Ran[1]; Zong, Jibiao[2]; Ye, Qinghua[2]; Moore, John C[1,5,6]. [ 1 ] Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China； [ 3 ] Chinese Acad Sci, Cold & Arid Reg Environm & Engn Res Inst, State Key Lab Cryosphere Sci, Lanzhou, Peoples R China； [4]CSC IT Ctr Sci Ltd, Espoo, Finland； [5]Univ Lapland, Arctic Ctr, Rovaniemi, Finland； [6]Uppsala Univ, Dept Earth Sci, Uppsala, Sweden ABSTRACT We investigate the impact of climate change on Gurenhekou glacier, southern Tibetan Plateau, which is representative of the tens of thousands of mountain glaciers in the region. We apply a three-dimensional, thermomechanically coupled full-Stokes model to simulate the evolution of the glacier. The steep and rugged bedrock geometry requires use of such a flow model. We parameterize the temperature and surface mass-balance (SMB) uncertainties using nearby automatic weather and meteorological stations, 6 year measured SMB data and an energy-balance model for a nearby glacier. Summer air temperature increased at 0.02 K a–1 over the past 50 years, and the glacier has retreated at an average rate of 8.3 m a–1. Prognostic simulations suggest an accelerated annual average retreat rate of ∼9.1 m a–1 along the central flowline for the next 25 years under continued steady warming. However, regional climate models suggest a marked increase in warming rate over Tibet during the 21st century, and this rate causes about a 0.9±0.3% a–1 loss of glaciated area and 1.1±0.6% a–1 shrinkage of glacier volume. These results, the rather high warming rates predicted and the small sizes of most Tibetan glaciers, suggest that significant numbers of glaciers will be lost in the region during the 21st century. KEY WORDS: glacier modelling; mountain glaciers PUBLISHED BY: JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY, 2014, 60 (219): 71-82 SOURCE: http://chinesesites.library.ingentaconnect.com/content/igsoc/jog/2014/00000060/00000219/art00007 |
|||||||
| |||||||