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Temporal-spatial characteristics of severe drought events and their impact on 
agriculture on a global scale

 

Qianfeng Wang ^{a, b}, Jianjun Wu ^{a, b, *}, Tianjie Lei ^{a, b}, Bin He ^c, Zhitao Wu ^d, Ming Liu ^e, Xinyu Mo ^{a, b}, Guangpo Geng ^{a, b}, Xiaohan Li ^{a, b}, Hongkui Zhou ^{a, b}, Dachuan Liu ^{a, b}

 

a Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, MOCA/MOE, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

b Center for Drought and Risk Research, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

c College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

d Institute of Loess Plateau, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China

e National Disaster Reduction Center of China, Beijing 100124, China

 

ABSTRACT

To identify the world's severely drought-prone areas, given that the corresponding ground area for a 0.5-degree grid in different latitudes is different, we proposed a more precise spherical area-based statistical method. The corresponding ground area per 0.5-degree grid is obtained by integral calculation in latitude and longitude directions. The analysis of the drought based on the global Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index dataset from 1902 to 2008, where global, Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere, and major crop-planting regions from six continents are treated as statistical units. The interannual variability characteristics of the severe drought area for each statistical unit are investigated. To study the spatial distribution characteristics of the global frequency of severe drought, the drought frequency was calculated based on drought events identified by continuous drought months on a grid level. Six major crops (wheat, maize, rice, soybean, barley, and sorghum) were chosen to study the impact of drought events on agriculture. The results suggested that severe droughts in global, Northern Hemisphere, and Southern Hemisphere areas have indicated a downward trend since 1990, but an upward trend overall in all continents except Oceania. The identified drought-prone areas show a patchy distribution and frequently drought-prone areas (with 10–20% occurrence probability of drought) were distributed in regions surrounding chronically drought-prone areas (with more than 20% probability). Global chronically drought-prone areas have increased significantly, from 16.19% in 1902–1949 to 41.09% in 1950–2008. Chronically drought-prone areas of agriculture are located in the center of southern Europe, South America, and eastern Asia.

 

KEY WORDS: SPEI; Global; Severe drought frequency; Drought-prone areas; Impact; Agriculture

 

PUBLISHED BY: QUATERNARY INTERNATIONAL, 2014, 349: 10-21

 

SOURCE: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040618214003875