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An estimate of human and natural contributions to flood changes
 of the Huai River

 

Feng Ma, Aizhong Ye, Wei Gong, Yuna Mao, Chiyuan Miao, Zhenhua Di

 

State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

 

ABSTRACT

Flooding in the Huai River Basin, China has changed because of climate change and human activity. It is important to determine how flooding has changed and what the main causes of this flood change are. In this study, daily data from 172 precipitation gauges and 1 hydrological station are analysed to detect the changes of precipitation and streamflow over the past 50 years in the Huai River Basin. Consequently, a method decomposing the influence of climate change and human activity through a distributed hydrological model is proposed. The time series of the natural streamflow are reconstructed from 1960 to 2009. Inter-annual impacts on the floods of the Huai River Basin are later separated from the impacts of human activity and climate change. Precipitation displays no significant interannual variability but displays great spatial–temporal variability in one year in the Huai River Basin; that is, precipitation is more concentrated in summer and winter in mountainous zones. Flood days in Huai River Basin have increased, whereas the flood peak displays no significant change. This phenomenon may be attributed to reservoir regulation, irrigation and urbanisation water consumption. Moreover, the quantitative assessments reveal that climate change has led to a streamflow increase of 40.8 m3/s per year for the Huai River Basin, accounting for 55% of the streamflow change. However, human activity has led to a streamflow decrease of 33.51 m3/s per year, accounting for 45% of the streamflow change. The effects of human activity, including water consumption, changes in land cover, and construction of reservoirs and dams, might alter the flooding in the Huai River Basin.

 

KEY WORDS: Climate change; Flood; Human and natural contributions; Huai River

 

PUBLISHED BY: GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE, 2014, 119 39-50; 10.1016

 

SOURCE: 

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818114000927