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Simone Tilmes,¹ John Fasullo,¹ Jean-Francois Lamarque¹, Daniel R. Marsh¹, Michael Mills¹, Kari Alterskjær², Helene Muri², Jón E. Kristjánsson², Olivier Boucher³, Michael Schulz³, Jason N. S. Cole⁴, Charles L. Curry⁵, Andy Jones⁶, Jim Haywood^6,7, Peter J. Irvine⁸, Duoying Ji⁹, John C. Moore⁹, Diana B. Karam¹⁰, Ben Kravitz¹¹, Philip J. Rasch¹¹, Balwinder Singh¹¹, Jin-Ho Yoon¹¹, Ulrike Niemeier¹², Hauke Schmidt¹², Alan Robock¹³, Shuting Yang¹⁴, Shingo Watanabe¹⁵

 

¹National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA.

²Department of Geosciences, Meteorology and Oceanography Section, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.

³Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL, CNRS/UPMC, Paris, France.

⁴Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

⁵School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.

⁶Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK. 7Exeter Climate Systems, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.

⁷Exeter Climate Systems, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.

⁸Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam, Germany.

⁹State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.

¹⁰Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l’Environnement, CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.

¹¹Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, USA.

¹²Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany.

¹³Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA.

¹⁴Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark.

¹⁵Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan.

 

Abstract

The hydrological impact of enhancing Earth's albedo by solar radiation management is investigated using simulations from 12 Earth System models contributing to the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). We contrast an idealized experiment, G1, where the global mean radiative forcing is kept at preindustrial conditions by reducing insolation while the CO2 concentration is quadrupled to a 4×CO2 experiment. The reduction of evapotranspiration over land with instantaneously increasing CO2 concentrations in both experiments largely contributes to an initial reduction in evaporation. A warming surface associated with the transient adjustment in 4×CO2 generates an increase of global precipitation by around 6.9% with large zonal and regional changes in both directions, including a precipitation increase of 10% over Asia and a reduction of 7% for the North American summer monsoon. Reduced global evaporation persists in G1 with temperatures close to preindustrial conditions. Global precipitation is reduced by around 4.5%, and significant reductions occur over monsoonal land regions: East Asia (6%), South Africa (5%), North America (7%), and South America (6%). The general precipitation performance in models is discussed in comparison to observations. In contrast to the 4×CO2 experiment, where the frequency of months with heavy precipitation intensity is increased by over 50% in comparison to the control, a reduction of up to 20% is simulated in G1. These changes in precipitation in both total amount and frequency of extremes point to a considerable weakening of the hydrological cycle in a geoengineered world.

 

KEY WORDS: geoengineering; hydrological cycle; climate change; GeoMIP; solar radiation management; monsoon

 

PUBLISHED BY: JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2013, 118 (19): 11036-11058.

 

DOWNLOAD PDF: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50868/pdf