当前位置： 首页»科研成果» 2013 纪多颖、John Moore在JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH发表论文 全球院

 

Andy Jones¹, Jim M. Haywood^1,2, Kari Alterskjær³, Olivier Boucher⁴, Jason N. S. Cole⁵, Charles L. Curry⁶, Peter J. Irvine⁷, Duoying Ji⁸, Ben Kravitz⁹, Jón Egill Kristjánsson³, John C. Moore⁸, Ulrike Niemeier¹⁰, Alan Robock¹¹, Hauke Schmidt¹⁰, Balwinder Singh⁹, Simone Tilmes¹², Shingo Watanabe¹³, Jin-Ho Yoon⁹

 

¹Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK;

²College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK;

³Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway;

⁴Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL, CNRS/UPMC, Paris, France;

⁵Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;

⁶School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada;

⁷Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam, Germany;

⁸State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China;

⁹Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, USA;

¹⁰Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany;

¹¹Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers, State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA;

¹²National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA;

¹³Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama,

Japan.

 

Abstract

We have examined changes in climate which result from the sudden termination of geoengineering after 50 years of offsetting a 1% per annum increase in CO2 concentrations by a reduction of solar radiation, as simulated by 11 different climate models in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. The models agree on a rapid increase in global-mean temperature following termination accompanied by increases in global-mean precipitation rate and decreases in sea-ice cover. There is no agreement on the impact of geoengineering termination on the rate of change of global-mean plant net primary productivity. There is a considerable degree of consensus for the geographical distribution of temperature change following termination, with faster warming at high latitudes and over land. There is also considerable agreement regarding the distribution of reductions in Arctic sea-ice, but less so for the Antarctic. There is much less agreement regarding the patterns of change in precipitation and net primary productivity, with a greater degree of consensus at higher latitudes.

 

KEY WORDS: geoengineering; termination; climate change; climate model; intercomparison; GeoMIP

 

PUBLISHED BY: JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2013, 118 (17): 9743-9752.

 

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