当前位置： 首页»科研成果» 2013 A successful real-time forecast of the 2010–11 La Nina event 张荣华

 

Rong-Hua Zhang^1,2, Fei Zheng³, Jiang Zhu³ & Zhanggui Wang⁴

 

¹Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC), University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA;

²College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China;

³International Center for Climate and Environment Science (ICCES), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;

⁴National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing, China.

 

ABSTRACT

During 2010–11, a La Niña condition prevailed in the tropical Pacific. An intermediate coupled model (ICM) is used to demonstrate a real-time forecast of sea surface temperature (SST) evolution during the event. One of the ICM's unique features is an empirical parameterization of the temperature of subsurface water entrained into the mixed layer (Te). This model provided a good prediction, particularly of the "double dip" evolution of SST in 2011 that followed the La Niña event peak in October 2010. Thermocline feedback, explicitly represented by the relationship between Te and sea level in the ICM, is a crucial factor affecting the second cooling in 2011. Large negative Te anomalies were observed to persist in the central equatorial domain during 2010–11, inducing a cold SST anomaly to the east during July–August 2011 and leading to the development of a La Niña condition thereafter.

 

PUBLISHED IN: SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, 2013, 3: 1108.

 

DOWNLOAD PDF: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3552287/pdf/srep01108.pdf