当前位置： 首页»科学研究» 科研动态 【学术讲座】Predicting North American Decadal Climate for 2011-2020 发布时间：Thu Nov 04 11:55:00 CST 2010

Topic : Predicting North American Decadal Climate for 2011-2020

Speaker : Dr. Xiaowei Duan

CIRES, University of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL,USA

Host : Prof.Xiaogu Zheng

Abstract :

Present a recent team-effort of predicting the North American mean surface air temperature and precipitation for the upcoming 2011-2020 decade. Multiple climate models forced by various plausible scenarios for the 2011- 2020 change in ocean surface boundary conditions are first employed in order to estimate the forced response, and its uncertainty, to expected changes in anthropogenic forcing. A full probabilistic decadal forecast is then generated by commingling the statistics of the forced response with those arising from internal decadal sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice variability. The latter are estimated from a multi-model suite of 20th Century atmospheric climate simulations driven by the observed time history of SST and sea ice variations.

Time : 10:00-11:00 AM,Nov.5,2010

Venue: GCESS Simulation Hall,1st floor,Sci&Tech building of BNU

 

 

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