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HAINAN GONG

Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

LIN WANG AND WEN CHEN

Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

RENGUANG WU

Institute of Space and Earth Information Science, and Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

KE WEI

Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

XUEFENG CUI

State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

 

ABSTRACT

In this paper the model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to examine the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). The multimodel ensemble (MME) is able to reproduce reasonably well the circulation features of the EAWM. The simulated surface air temperature still suffers from a cold bias over East Asia, but this bias is reduced compared with CMIP phase 3 models. The intermodel spread is relatively small for the large-scale circulations, but is large for the lower-tropospheric meridional wind and precipitation along the East Asian coast. The interannual variability of the EAWM-related circulations can be captured by most of the models. A general bias is that the simulated variability is slightly weaker than in the observations. Based on a selected dynamic EAWM index, the patterns of the EAWM-related anomalies are well reproduced in MME although the simulated anomalies are slightly weaker than the observations. One general bias is that the northeasterly anomalies over East Asia cannot be captured to the south of 30°N. This bias may arise both from the inadequacies of the EAWM index and from the ability of models to capture the EAWM-related tropical–extratropical interactions. The ENSO–EAWM relationship is then evaluated and about half of the models can successfully capture the observed ENSO–EAWM relationship, including the significant negative correlation between Niño-3.4 and EAWM indices and the anomalous anticyclone (or cyclone) over the northwestern Pacific. The success of these models is attributed to the reasonable simulation of both ENSO’s spatial structure and its strength of interannual variability.

 

KEY WORDS: Asia, Atmospheric circulation, ENSO, Climate variability, Climatology, Model evaluation/performance

 

PUBLISHED BY:  JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2014, 27 (4): 1659-1678.

 

SOURCE:  http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00039.1