北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院
北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院
   
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Spatiotemporal analysis of infant measles using population attributable risk in Shandong Province, 1999-2008

 

Yuhui Zhu1, Qing Xu2, Hualiang Lin3, Dahai Yue4, Lizhi Song2, Changyin Wang2, Huaiyu Tian5,6, Xiaoxu Wu6, Aiqiang Xu2, Xiujun Li1

 

1Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, China;

2Shandong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, China;

3Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China;

4China Center for Health Development Studies, Peking University, Beijing, P. R. China;

5School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, P. R. China;

6College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, P. R. China.

 

ABSTRACT

Background: Reduction of measles incidence and mortality has been encouraging in China. However, it remains an important public health concern among infants. This study aimed to examine the space–time distribution pattern of infant measles occurrence for the period of 1999–2008 in Shandong, China.

Methods and Findings: Measles cases among infants aged younger than 1 year were obtained from the national infectious diseases reporting information system. A spatiotemporal analysis using population attributable risk percent (PAR%) was used to distinguish between multiple geographic clusters of potential interest. The analysis detected 29 statistically significant space–time clusters with the most likely cluster in Zaozhuang City from 2006 to 2008. Of the 28 secondary clusters, 22 were found in 2008. The map of PAR%, relative risk (RR) and space–time cluster analysis indicated that the clusters were generally unchanged, and were found south-west and north-west of Shandong. The Lanshan District in Linyi had the highest PAR%, while highest RR was in the Yicheng District in Zaozhuang.

Conclusion: There were significant space-time clusters of infant measles in Shandong over the study period. PAR% is an effective way to analyze multiple clusters from their application like RR. Interrupting measles circulation and maintaining routine coverage over 95% may be the only effective strategy to achieve measles elimination.

 

PUBLISHED BY: PLOS ONE, 2013, 8 (11): e79334.

 

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